What a difference a weekend can make on investor confidence. Sharp rises in equity markets indicate some traction for worldwide efforts to promote corporate lending. A measure of current monetary policy effectiveness is the TED spread. This spread measure the difference between US 90 day treasury bills and Libor or the rate at which you can lend to commercial banks. When rising this is an indication of a reduction in liquidity in the general economy. The equilibrium rate is expected to be somewhere between 50 and 100 basis points or below 1%. As you can see from the chart below we are at unprecedented levels more than 445 basis points. So while we are all thankful for this recent stock market reprieve, a healthy worldwide economy will be in a large part subject to a follow through in the reduction of the TED spread.














Looks like a good start, anyway!
How long do you presume it will take to correct the spread?
Andrew
I think the nominal level will take some time to get back to a equilibrium range (50-100 basis points). It is down to 427 this morning, dropping each day this week from where it started at 445. The trend rather than the absolute level is what I am looking at to confirm progress on the worldwide financial fix.